國際貨代海運公司談航運價格上漲的五大原因

　　當前，天津貨代公司稱航運成本大幅上漲，激烈的海運能力競爭成為新常態。由于新運力僅緩慢投產，預計今年運價將繼續創下新高，并在長期內保持在疫情前的水平之上。

　　Currently,shipping costs are rising sharply and intense competition for ocean freight capacity is the new normal.With new capacity only slowly coming on stream,shipping rates are expected to continue to hit new highs this year and remain above pre-epidemic levels in the long term.

　　短期無緩解

　　No short-term relief

　　自2020年秋季以來，海運成本一直在強勁增長，但今年頭幾個月，主要貿易路線上不同運價（干散貨、集裝箱）的價格出現了新的上漲。與去年相比，幾條貿易航線的價格上漲了兩倍，集裝箱船的租船價格也出現了類似的上漲。

　　Ocean freight costs have been growing strongly since the fall of 2020,but the first months of this year have seen new price increases on the major trade routes at different rates(dry bulk,container).Several trade routes have seen prices triple compared to last year,and container vessels have seen similar increases in charter rates.

　　短期內幾乎沒有緩解的跡象，由于全球需求的增長將繼續滿足運力增長有限以及當地封鎖的破壞性影響，今年下半年運價可能會繼續飆升。即使有新的運力到達，集裝箱班輪公司也可能會繼續更加積極地管理運力，從而將運費保持在比新冠病毒大流行之前更高的水平。

　　There is little sign of relief in the short term and rates are likely to continue to soar later this year as global demand growth will continue to meet limited capacity growth and the damaging effects of local blockades.Even with new capacity arrivals,container liner companies are likely to continue to manage capacity more aggressively,thereby keeping freight rates higher than they were prior to the new coronavirus pandemic.

　　1、持續的全球失衡進一步推高價格

　　1-Continuing global imbalances further push up prices

　　從新冠病毒大流行開始就積累起來的問題包括貨物生產和需求不平衡，各國封鎖和開放時間不同，以及航運公司削減主要航線的運力和空箱短缺。隨著經濟復蘇的推進，全球需求強勁復蘇，尤其是與國際貨物貿易關系最密切的部門。隨著經濟的進一步開放和供應鏈多個環節的庫存重建，對海運能力的競爭加劇。

　　Problems that have built up since the beginning of the New Coronavirus pandemic include imbalances in cargo production and demand,differing blockades and opening times across countries,and capacity cuts and shortages of empty containers by shipping lines on major routes.As the economic recovery advances,global demand is recovering strongly,especially in the sectors most closely associated with international cargo trade.Competition for ocean freight capacity intensifies as the economy opens up further and inventories are rebuilt at multiple points in the supply chain.

　　2、海運的替代方案少

　　2-Few alternatives to maritime transport

　　缺乏海運替代品意味著目前很難避免海運成本飆升。對于價值更高的產品，通?？梢赃x擇其他運輸方式，例如通過航空或火車運輸電子設備，尤其是通過“絲綢之路”。但目前產能有限，關稅也飆升。家庭用品、玩具、促銷品或T恤等低價值產品的托運人的運費成本從其采購成本的5%左右增加到20%以上。

　　The lack of sea freight alternatives means that it is currently difficult to avoid soaring sea freight costs.For higher value products,there are often alternatives to shipping,such as shipping electronic equipment by air or train,especially via the Silk Road.But capacity is currently limited and tariffs have soared.Shippers of low-value products such as housewares,toys,promotional items or T-shirts have seen freight costs increase from about 5%to over 20%of their purchase cost.

　　難以消化這種規模的利潤增長，這意味著消費者可能會開始感受到價格上漲或產品供應變化帶來的影響。

　　The difficulty of absorbing profit increases of this magnitude means that consumers may begin to feel the impact of higher prices or changes in product availability.

　　3、整個2021年的不平衡復蘇

　　3-Uneven recovery throughout 2021

　　貨物貿易將進一步增長，不僅主要貿易國，而且其貿易伙伴也將繼續復蘇。隨著對海運能力的競爭將繼續存在，不平衡的復蘇將繼續加劇世界貿易的一些問題，包括空箱轉移。這一切都在短期內增加了運費的壓力。

　　Trade in goods will grow further,and recovery will continue not only for the major trading nations but also for their trading partners.With competition for maritime capacity set to continue,the uneven recovery will continue to exacerbate some of the problems of world trade,including the shifting of empty containers.All of this adds to the pressure on freight rates in the short term.

　　4、船舶空白航行縮緊運力

　　4-Vessel gap sailing tightens capacity

　　在全球范圍內，主要航線的運力已恢復到2020年主要封鎖之前的水平，盡管空白航行（取消的港口?？浚┰诘谝患径壤^續削減了預定運力的10%。本季度有改善的跡象，按照目前的計劃平均為4%。但取消部分是對延誤的回應，因此雖然系統仍然擁擠，但運輸能力可能會在短時間內繼續從系統中取出。

　　Globally,capacity on major routes has returned to pre-2020 major blockade levels,although blanket voyages(cancelled port calls)continued to cut 10%of scheduled capacity in the first quarter.There were signs of improvement during the quarter,averaging 4%as currently scheduled.However,the cancellations are partly in response to delays,so while the system remains congested,capacity is likely to continue to be taken out of the system for a short period of time.

　　5、港口擁堵和關閉不斷

　　5-Port congestion and closures continue

　　正如取消航班和延誤之間的聯系所表明的那樣，擁堵是問題的一部分。2021年的航運表現延續了2020年的表現，因為船舶準時率降低，船舶到港平均延誤率上升。有一些跡象表明，隨著準時到達目的地的船舶比例在4月份停止下滑，平均延誤情況有所改善，平均績效將開始改善，但整體表現仍然是十年來的最低記錄。

　　As the link between cancellations and delays suggests,congestion is part of the problem.2021 shipping performance continues from 2020,as ship on-time performance decreases and average ship arrival delays increase.There are some indications that average performance will begin to improve as the proportion of ships arriving on time at their destination stops declining in April and average delays improve,but overall performance remains the lowest recorded in a decade.

　　準時到達的船舶比例

　　Proportion of ships arriving on time

　　與此同時，新冠病毒大流行仍在導致中斷，例如中國鹽田集裝箱港——世界第四大集裝箱港口——在6月初突然關閉。即使運營已經恢復，擁堵和持續需要采取措施阻止Covid-19的傳播意味著延誤繼續增加。盡管中國和其他主要貿易國家在疫苗接種計劃方面取得了進展，但產生免疫力需要時間，因此在未來幾個月內，處理中斷仍將是一個風險。

　　Meanwhile,the New Coronavirus pandemic is still causing disruptions,such as the abrupt closure of China's Yantian Container Port-the world's fourth largest container port-in early June.Even though operations have resumed,congestion and the ongoing need to take measures to stop the spread of Covid-19 mean that delays continue to increase.Despite progress in vaccination programs in China and other major trading countries,it will take time to develop immunity,so handling disruptions will remain a risk for months to come.

　　大量新集裝箱運力將緩解價格壓力，但不會在2023年之前

　　Significant new container capacity will ease price pressure,but not before 2023

　　集裝箱班輪在疫情期間取得了出色的財務業績，在2021年前5個月，集裝箱船的新訂單達到創紀錄的229艘，總貨運能力為220萬標準箱。到2023年，當新運力準備好投入使用時，經過多年的低交付量后，它將增加6%，預計舊船的報廢不會抵消這一點。隨著全球經濟增長越過復蘇的追趕階段，即將到來的海運運力增加將對航運成本構成下行壓力，但不一定會使運費恢復到新冠病毒大流行前的水平，因為集裝箱班輪似乎已經學會了在他們的聯盟中更好地管理運力能力。

　　Container liners have delivered excellent financial results during the epidemic,with a record 229 new orders for container ships in the first five months of 2021,for a total cargo capacity of 2.2 million TEUs.By 2023,when new capacity is ready to enter service,it will have increased by 6%after years of low deliveries,which is not expected to be offset by the scrapping of older vessels.As global growth crosses the catch-up phase of the recovery,the upcoming increase in ocean freight capacity will put downward pressure on shipping costs,but will not necessarily return freight rates to pre-new coronavirus pandemic levels,as container liners appear to have learned to better manage capacity capacity in their alliances.

　　在短期內，由于需求的進一步增加和擁擠的系統的限制，運價可能會創下新高。即使運力限制得到緩解，運費也可能保持在比新冠病毒大流行之前更高的水平上。

　　In the near term,freight rates could reach new highs due to further increases in demand and the constraints of a congested system.Even if capacity constraints are eased,freight rates are likely to remain at higher levels than before the new